In short: according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), which published its data on November 6, 2026, the Food Price Index averaged 133.9 points in October — 1.2% lower than in September. Cereals (−4.5%), dairy (−1.1%) and meat (−1.2%) all fell. The exception was sugar: up 6.6% on the month and 28.8% on the year. Even after the dip, the overall index is 5.9% higher than a year ago.

What is the FAO Food Price Index and why does it matter?

The FAO index tracks monthly international prices for a basket of widely traded foods: cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat and sugar. These are not supermarket prices, but over time they shape what we pay for bread, butter and sweets. The index is currently 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

What got cheaper in October 2026?

  • Cereals: −4.5%. Wheat fell for the first time after four monthly increases, thanks to muted demand, better harvest prospects (especially in Argentina) and hopes of looser Black Sea export constraints. Maize eased from September’s three-year high. Rice, however, rose 1.6%.

  • Dairy: −1.1%. Butter and cheese fell, although milk powder kept rising.

  • Meat: −1.2%. Pig, sheep and beef prices declined, while poultry was broadly steady.

What got more expensive?

Sugar rose for a fourth straight month to its highest level since December 2024, driven by rain-related harvesting disruptions in Brazil and concerns about crops in India, the EU and Thailand. Vegetable oils edged up 0.3%: soybean oil hit its highest level since late 2022, and sunflower oil rebounded from multi-month lows on tight Black Sea supplies.

What does it mean for Ukraine?

FAO expects global cereal stocks to grow 1.8% by the end of the 2026/27 seasons, partly because wheat is piling up in Ukraine and Russia, where exports are disrupted. World wheat trade is forecast to shrink 8.6%. For consumers, that suggests relatively stable prices for bread and grains, while sugary products may keep getting pricier.

FAQ

Will supermarket prices fall?

Not immediately. Global prices reach shelves with a lag of several months, and retail prices also depend on exchange rates, logistics and energy costs.

Why is sugar getting more expensive?

Weather problems during Brazil’s cane harvest and weaker crop outlooks in India, the EU and Thailand.

How much grain will the world harvest in 2026?

FAO forecasts 2,999 million tonnes — the second-largest harvest on record after 2025.

Sources: IndexBox (дані FAO), Reuters / Investing.com.